Procedural vs. Serialized Shows - Cable Changes the Game

I was skimming through Variety today and I noticed an op-ed titled, "Are DVRs, procedurals serial killers?". My first thought? "I sincerely hope not". I haven't really mentioned it yet on this blog, but, for people who know me, it's no secret that I am no huge fan of procedural dramas. For the most part, I think that those type of shows are for people who want to sit in front of the TV and be mildly entertained for an hour without having to put in any mental effort ("CSI", I'm looking at you). The only problem? I'm in the minority.

Nielsen Media Research, which is the company that tracks TV ratings, consistently shows me that Americans just loves their procedural shows. For example, last Wednesday night, 14 million people (with a 3.6 18-49 ratings share) watched procedural, "Criminal Minds", while only 7 million people watched the highly-original, critically-acclaimed "Glee".

According to Brian Lowry at Variety, the gap between ratings for procedurals and serialized shows exists in large part because of DVRs. Because viewers are more involved in the story lines and cliffhangers on serialized programs, "the rate of time-shifting and commercial avoidance is generally higher across the board". I'm definitely inclined to agree with Lowry on this point. If I had the option, I would much rather DVR my favorite show and watch it on a delay so that I could skip the commercials instead of just watching it live. This isn't good news for the business television, especially for the broadcast networks. According to TiVo, roughly 80% of users fast-forward through the commercial for serialized drama, compared with the drama average of 73%. Even though this may not seem like a huge difference, when advertising provides the majority of a network's income those statistics could push a bubble show (a show that could be either renewed or cancelled) into the red.

If these trends continue it may mean that creative, serialized drama fail to find homes on broadcast networks and migrate to the more ratings-lenient, niche cable networks. Take for example, ABC's "Pushing Daisies". A show about a pie-maker who can bring the dead back to life with the touch of his finger failed to find anything more than a fiercely loyal but small cult audience. The show only lasted for 2 seasons, despite being, in my opinion, one of the most original ideas to come out of network television in years. For the past three years cable networks have scooped up the Emmy for best drama (1 for The Sopranos and 2 for Mad Men), with networks shows increasing failing to even garner nominations. Unless the major broadcast networks find ways to bring more eyes to their quality serialized dramas they may become a thing of the past, only to be found on smaller-scale niche cable channels.